Gras Savoye – Insurance Markets 2018

marchés de l'assurance 2018

The broker Gras Savoye, belonging to the Willis Towers Watson Group, published in september 2017 an interesting economic note on the transformation of the insurance markets 2018. They come back therefore, by business line, on current trends.

Overview

Overall, the French insurance market is rather stable:

  • The world market is down slightly
  • France remains an important market (5th world player), with just over 200 billion euros of premiums
  • Personal insurance accounts for 75% of this figure, and sees a rise in pension premiums
  • Property insurance is subject to strong competition, and is experiencing a significant increase in claims, which affects the underwriting results. This is due in particular to climatic events.

In the details of the 2018 insurance markets

In brief

Given the richness of the report, it is complicated to synthesize it, and I prefer to suggest that you refer to it if necessary. I prefer to present the plan!

insurance markets 2018 insurance markets 2018

Each theme is treated according to 5 axes:

  • Capacity / Appetite
  • Price
  • Deductibles
  • Warranties
  • Flexibility

Some key things to remember

  • 3 alternatives to risk transfer are presented:
    • Structured Insurance: covering the multi-year consequences of new or complex risks. (terrorism, pandemics, strikes, etc.)
    • parametric insurance : or index-based insurance, which i have already talked a lot here
    • Mutli-line / Multi-year approach: which reduces volatility
  • D&O (Executive) policies continue to evolve and adapt to changing risks. The tailor-made is put on this profitable and dynamic market (new regulations, cyber risks, etc. which increase the risks for managers).
  • There is growing interest in combined fraud / cyber collateral, although these mounts do not always yield the best proposals. Note: It is understandable that customers are always looking to hedge against an unknown risk, but perceived as critical .
  • Kidnap & Ransom products are in full swing, because of an international geopolitical context that is sometimes hazardous.

Conclusion: My opinion

This report is a mine of information, very technical, but essential to a good understanding of the complexity of heavy risks. A disadvantage on the bedside table, but imperatively under the elbow!

In hollow, one sees there appear, as often, the insurance products which could be generalized tomorrow. The trends observed, especially on cyber, fraud or regulatory aspects are in this sense good indicators of the future.

Press review January 15th, 2018

revue de presse du 15 janvier 2018

Here is a little overview of articles that caught my attention and deserve to appear in the “press review January 15th, 2018”!

O’Reilly offers books on data and artificial intelligence

The famous publisher of computer science books has a library of 80 of its publications on big data, artificial intelligence and data science, published between 2012 and 2016. Essential detail: the download is free, in pdf, epub or mobi.

Remember: when it’s free, you’re the product! O’reilly asks for your name, first name and email to download, but nothing forces you to enter the real …

press review January 15th, 2018

Not so accidental road accidents

Mathieu Grossetête is a researcher at the university research center on public action and politics. We propose in the Diplomatic World a reading interestingly, accidentology by car.

It appears that the prevention policies of Road Safety may now reach their limits because they are poorly targeted! Or when the art of data analysis becomes essential to better control a phenomenon, and treat it correctly!

Exciting article to read, which makes us rethink the notion of risk analysis, the perception of events. Finally, it simply invites us to change our way of thinking.

press review January 15th, 2018

Typologies of wearables

Evan Kirstel, one of the leading thought leaders in connected health, offers us a panorama of typologies of connected objects for health, aka wearables. This one goes a little further than the usual dichotomy watch and bracelet vs balance!

press review January 15th, 2018

Deloitte: human collaboration – machines

A visual of a Deloitte study, found on Twitter, gives an interesting reading of the symbiotic relationship that can develop between humans and machines. All thanks to the service rendered!

press review January 15th, 2018

Axa and telemedicine

Jacques de Peretti, CeO of Axa in France announced this week the launch of telemedicine in companies and openness from service to experts.

The second service is the extension of the current service (which I had the opportunity to test personally and which is very good). On the other hand, the first one supposes major investments and questions around the model chosen by Axa.

The question of danger, posed by Olivier Harmant, is in my opinion not relevant.

press review January 15th, 2018

However, what is the return on investment of this model for a complementary insurer? Indeed, a teleconsultation at the expense of the complementary supposes a cost support higher than the usual part. In order to be financially attractive, such a service needs to be either cheaper than normal consultation or to reduce risks. For now, teleconsultation is a vector of brand image and carries a demarcation line with respect to the competition. However, when everyone will do it, it will be necessary to consider the business model that goes with it!

Finally, should not this be the role of an intermediary platform? The latter would make this service available and look for the insurer who answers it. On the contrary here, it is carried directly by a complementary insurance? What does this say about our public health insurance? A lot of questions, few answers for now!

Insurance, innovation and behaviorial evolution

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A conjunction of elements led me to reflect lately on the link between insurance, innovation and behavioral evolution! It is an opportunity to give you my point of view on the issue.

Insurance is often considered reactive. Indeed, it reacts to events called claims to compensate for the residual loss.

Campaigns, sometimes famous (I think about road safety), are intended to transform behavior upstream to reduce downstream losses. For the insurer, it is an initial investment that finds its ROI in reducing the indemnification. We are here in a model in which the insurer is a preventer and no longer just a compensator.

However, a lot of debate has taken place in recent years to give the insurer a more proactive societal role upstream to reduce risks and thus change behavior. The embedded telematics (with Pay-How-You-Drive offers for example) has often been seen as an incentive for good practice: if you drive better, I make you pay less. Ditto for connected bracelets of health: if you play sports, you will have a reduction.

However, we note that these approaches do not always work or that they are not effective. However, do not we say “chase the natural will come back at a gallop”? The challenge is therefore twofold:

  • Find new ways to influence behavior.
  • Adjust offers to better stick to individual behaviors rather than standardizing responses.

Nudges at the service of behavioral change

Context

It will probably not have escaped you that the last Nobel Prize in economics (2017 ) was awarded to research on the so-called behavioral economy. To learn more, read here . This is also called benevolent manipulation.

insurance innovation and behavioral evolution
Cover page of the book Guide to Behavioral Economics, free download here . Thanks to Yuri for giving me the paper book.

I will not attempt here to detail fully the possibilities offered for insurance, because it deserves to think seriously about it. Anyway, I invite you to read the very good article from one of my competitors on the issue. Here is the example cited:

For some American motor insurances, the declaration of the mileage achieved in the year (n) conditions the premium for the following year (n + 1). The average rate of under declaration is estimated at 15% compared to the Km actually made. A Nudge has been tested to try to improve the statements. Instead of signing the declaration on honor at the end of the document, the researchers put it on the heading of the document, before the declaration. This simple change results in a 10% increase in the number of Km declared, a gain for the insurer of $ 48 per insured. The simple reorganization of the structure of the document, the architecture of choice, makes it possible to modify the behavior of the insured and thus to increase the income.

Some examples of nudges for insurance

Here are some examples of nudges that are or could be relevant to insurance depending on the objectives:

  • Reducing risks: The incentive to drive better.
    • The solution implemented by Liberty Mutual and relayed here consists of a mixture of gamification and information to drivers. Thanks to embedded telematics, the solution allows everyone to consult their driving information and to consider how to drive better and therefore how to reduce their premium, the discount rate being updated live every day for 3 months before being fixed.
    • By extending the exercise outside the pure scope of intervention of the insurer, we can note that tracing, on the road, shorter white stripes gives the impression of going faster and encourages you to slow down without even realizing it.
  • The incentive to subscribe:
    • A study relayed in the book above (London Economics and YouGov in 2013 for the FCA) showed the impact of the presentation of the insurance offer in parallel with another product. This is the case for example when buying the insurance when buying a mobile or cancellation insurance.

 assurance innovation and behavioral evolution

Beyond the questionable ethical aspect, this shows the influence of the distribution strategy on the choices of insured.

  • The choice of priorities: Last-mile problems (read for it this article and that one)
    • Segmenting the populations can be done according to a probability of underwriting. By identifying 3 segments (low, medium and high effort) using artificial intelligence, we can then determine who has the strongest probability of traveling the last mile to the subscription. These populations, for which the effort is small, will be treated differently and maybe receive, when the time comes, a little nudge! This can be a text message, a small message on the screen or a welcome email when giving the little extra that will be enough to convince them.

I will come back to these questions later with other detailed use cases to imagine more precisely how to use these methods.

Adjust offers

Most of the current offers are very standardized. They take into account a need considered identical for all insureds. At the time of individualization, why could not we consider adapting the coverage more finely according to the real risks of the insured. I can already hear the reactions: “This is the essence of our job”, “We already do it”, the contracts offer options and choices of levels to ensure according to his needs. “Very good, but in truth, can one think otherwise?

The Wilov speech is very interesting on this point. Most auto insured drivers drive less than 50 days a year. Yet they are covered full time. By inventing the “Pay-When-You-Drive”, their starting premise is to charge drivers only when they drive! The price is not necessarily much lower, however, the feeling of the insured is much better (provided that the user experience is the appointment of course!).

The approach of Inspeer goes in a similar direction. Starting from the premise that changing the behavior is complicated, Emmanuelle Mury and her team are working on the notion of affinity groups that go around the use. Clearly, they identify similar behaviors, and create the corresponding supply. I will come back to this in a dedicated article!

In short, the notion of supply is still too much seen today as unique, identical for all. Indeed, IT systems did not allow to easily and quickly deploy variants and customization, or the illusion of personalization was at the marketing level. It’s time to move to a higher level!

 

And you what do you think? When do we start to revamp your offers?

NEWS – What you may have missed in 2017

revue de presse du 15 janvier 2018

What you may have missed, like me in 2017!

If like me, you follow between 50 and 70 sources of information (rss feed) on a daily basis, not counting the linkedin and Twitter publications, it sometimes happens to lose your mind and miss some interesting information.

More specifically, it often happens to see an article that we think would be interesting and keep it for later. But this later comes only rarely and we end up with a small stack of articles to read!

For me, this blog has solved the question about the publication of reports, which remained on my desk waiting for something. For the articles, it is not quite that still, and I find myself at the end of 2017, with a good fifty articles under the elbow. Here are some of them, which you may have missed too!

The Tribune – Assurtech: a disrupted industry, for the benefit of the customer?

link: https://www.latribune.fr/opinions/tribunes/assurtech-une-industrie-disruptee-au-benefice-du-client-717687.html

Daniel Haguet, professor of finance at EDHEC, who was few (hum) years ago my teacher, gives his opinion on the phenomenon:

  • 75% of insurers consider that their industry could be disrupted
  • Big data, by aggregating data, even out of the insurance, allows a customization of offers
  • Distribution is growing online thanks to the rise of the internet
  • For many players, the challenge is to take a stake in these structures, to take advantage of both technological advances and the “captive” portfolios of clients.

Note: For a selection of insurers’ strategies with insurtechs, it is here !

Structuring technologies and forces

Seen on Twitter, but unfortunately without noting the source, I share it, because although incomplete without a caption, it seems to me wider in its acceptance of technologies than many current reports and panoramas, including mine !

what you may have missed

Here’s another one, which gives a little overview of the issues ahead.

what you may have missed

Medium – Insurance as a smart contract

link: https://medium.com/aigang-network/insurance-policy-as-a-smart-contract-fully-automated-process-too-good-to-be-true-39c613c18d8d

Aigang Network summarizes what insurance contracts will be tomorrow, thanks to smart contracts. Better yet, rather than a long speech, they made a demo, wrote the code around an Ethereum blockchain ( accessible on github ) and an app to test it, as well as a video, here:

Note: For a selection of articles on the blockchain, this is here

Risk management – Investing in the insurtech toolbox

link: http://www.rmmagazine.com/2017/06/01/investing-in-the-insurtech-toolbox/

A small inventory of insurtech solutions that address the issues of risk management:

  • Understory weather
  • Safety culture
  • Security Scorecard
  • Risk IQ
  • CapeAnalytics
  • Cyence
  • Human Condition Safety
  • DAQRI Smart Helmet

Note: To find my overview of insurtechs, it’s here !

Intercom Blog – Machine learning is easier than it looks

link: https://blog.intercom.com/machine-learning-way-easier-than-it-looks/?utm_content=buffer25695&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Once is not customary, a somewhat technical article, but that gives a specific example of what can be done with machine learning in 40 lines of code. Frankly, it’s a gift!

Note: For a selection of articles on artificial intelligences, it’s here !

The digital journal – connected objects of health, french social security does not perceive the added value

link: http://www.larevuedudigital.com/objets-connectes-de-sante-la-securite-sociale-nen-percoit-pas-la-valeur-ajoutee/

The title is deliberately provocative and surely a little removed from reality, when we know the current reflections! However, Laure Beyala, a biomedical engineer in Bichat, who has published a book on connected health objects, offers an interesting vision of the issue. She returns in particular on key concepts: Role of the social security, the insurers, DMP, brakes with the development, etc.

Note: For a selection of articles on connected objects, it’s here !

P & C360 – Telematics in auto claims is inevitable

link: http://www.propertycasualty360.com/2016/08/18/telematics-in-auto-claims-is-inevitable?slreturn=1515504588

This article is totally in sync with my opinion on embedded telematics (see my predictions for 2018 or even my note of conjuncture on this subject ). It goes back to what can be done with it, and why the use of this technology for disasters is inevitable!

Note: For a selection of telematics articles, it’s here

Insurance Thought Leadership – Why is Customer Experience Key?

link: http://insurancethoughtleadership.com/why-customer-experience-is-key/

This article is about a concept that I consider essential! Data, processes, technologies must be oriented around the customer and his needs. This is all the more true as connected objects and their billions of data become more and more accessible in the years to come.

Note: For a selection of articles on the user experience, it is here !

Design thinking

A visual that I like about design thinking and ideation strategy that I integrate more and more in my thoughts because totally related to the notion of innovation. The content could not be done without the form …

what you may have missed

REPORT KleinBlue – Benchmark insurers facing insurtechs

Benchmark Les assureurs face aux insurtechs

FrenchKlein Blue Partners has published 2 interesting reports on the market about insurtechs. The first one, France insurtech panorama was published in June 2017. The second, “Benchmark Insurers facing insurtechs and innovative players“, was published in December 2017. They confirm this young consulting firm’s (and its partner Salim Echoukry ) desire to position as a quality partner for insurers who have questions about their innovation strategy in the market. I start the year by not being late and therefore deals here with the last published! Continue reading “REPORT KleinBlue – Benchmark insurers facing insurtechs”

Innovation Insurance – My 6 topics for 2018

6 topics for 2018

As it is frequent at the beginning of the year, I too will fall into the game of predictions for the coming year. With my 6 topics for 2018, here are the 6 points that I think will be 2018 on innovation in insurance:

IOT

I think the moment is good to launch complete offers around telematics embedded in cars, smart homes or wearables. When I think of complete offers, it does not just mean capturing user data. It is also, above all, and before all, providing services to these policyholders or using these tools to implement new prevention policies.

Redesigning offers

This may be the consequence of the previous point, but a little wider, a redesign of offers. It’s time to think about offering insurance products as the structuring element of the insurance value chain, from prevention, to disaster, to adding service. For example, the improvement of claims management will only pass a complementary course when products are designed to be managed quickly and simply.

Platforms

I often talk here about decomposing the value chain with the setting up of experts at all levels, namely, risk bearers, distributors and managers, for the purely insurance part, but also service providers. ecosystems that will need to be mobilized intelligently. The advent of the platforms will aim to move towards this type of organization where everyone will find his place!

API

As a direct consequence of the previous point, if the same contract must concern multiple interlocutors, the notion of interface between them is essential. Maturity on these issues has greatly increased in recent years. Simple EDI flows (like those still used for third-party payment for example), we moved to advanced webservices but sometimes complicated to set up. Then, we now come to expose real complete services, through webservices or APIs to access the data without necessarily changing the technical architectures in a structuring way.

Insurance “cyber”

The needs in this segment are exploding, and it will be an intelligent response that avoids the pitfall of systemic risk! For me, here more than elsewhere, it means helping to prevent and reduce risks upstream to avoid the most frequent attacks. On the technological side, the weakest link is always first and foremost the human, it is about takins this into consideration! By the way, how do you manage your passwords?

A user experience at the heart of all steps

The last few years have been mostly devoted (except for the more advanced ones) to work around the efficiency of processes, and how to do it for less! It is now to be interested in doing better for the same price, or better for less expensive. Better means here better from the point of view of the customer, because the essential thing is to simplify his life, to eliminate irritants. It is therefore customer demand that must be at the center of future optimizations.

It goes without saying that Siltéa and I are able to accompany you on these 6 topics for 2018! Feel free to contact me .

And you? What do you think? Do you have others?

Insurance innovators – Future of insurance 2017

future of insurance 2017

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Insurance Innovators (an offshoot of Market Force, which I had already talked about here for their report under the same title ) has just published the future of insurance 2017 (Future of General Insurance Report 2017).

7 themes are discussed (for a better readability I separated into several pages):

  • Innovation and Disruption
  • A changing regulatory environment
  • The future of underwriting and pricing
  • Value-added services
  • Touch Millenial Generation
  • Insurance in the Age of Machine Intelligence
  • Fraud in a connected world.

Written in partnership with the Chartered Insurance Institute , and sponsored by IBM, Sas and Smart Communications , this report is generic, but of quality. Market Force believes that insurers are poised to innovate and transform to keep pace with insurance companies, but the pace of transformation is still too slow. A tip: Act now! Continue reading “Insurance innovators – Future of insurance 2017”

Lexis Nexis – Best practices for predictive modelling

best practices for predictive modelling

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Lexis Nexis published this summer a white paper on the best practices for predictive modelling , or more precisely on the steps to follow to implement this type of solutions for small commercial.

According to them, 4 steps are necessary for a product creation of this type:

  • Ideation
  • Design and development
  • Implementation
  • Monitoring

So far nothing transcendent, isn’t it? Let’s check it out!

Ideation

Successful ideation assumes that two conditions are met: a strong sponsorship and a cross-functional team.

The responsibilities of this team are as follows:

  • Identify and validate the business problems to solve
  • Generate ideas on how to solve these issues with predictive models
  • Select the best ideas
  • Highlight the benefits of predictive models
  • Calculate implementation costs
  • Determine the ROI and justify the use of predictive models in relation to another solution
  • Establish acceptance of the topic among the teams.

Design and development

The report is focused on contracts / products for small businesses. The suggestion is then to go through an “insurance score” to analyze and estimate the risk and to price it, according to a probability of losses.

3 steps are needed:

best practices for predictive modelling

  • Data mining : nature of data, sources, refresh frequency, etc. For example, it is possible to use historical loss experience data ( Note: obviously …! ), but also credit data, or public data about the company. In a more detailed way, the geographical location is relevant. ( Note: at this point, note that we do not use anything complex! )
  • Model creation and validation : This is to determine, on the basis of a set of data, patterns or correlations that recur. We are here in deductive mode, we start from data to deduce a model. The challenge is to identify which data plays a role in achieving the desired goal . Then, it is possible to test the identifier models on data and production processes, to ensure that, when capturing the data, it is possible to categorize a new customer using the defined models.
    • Here is the kind of report that can be generated to define a number of groups to automate the subscription with 3 possible actions: acceptance (right), visa application (center) or automatic refusal (for worst groups).

    best practices for predictive modelling

  • Regulatory review : This aspect specific to the American market (but finally quite close to the regulatory aspects valid everywhere), suggests to compare the required data with the specificities of each state, and to apply, where applicable, restrictions.

implementation

The implementation is based on a few key steps

good practice predictive models

Monitoring

Finally, monitoring the relevance of the model assumes, on the one hand, to track the use that is made of this product, but also to measure its effectiveness.

best practices for predictive modelling

Monitoring

Finally, monitoring the relevance of the model assumes, on the one hand, to track the use that is made of this product, but also to measure its effectiveness.

best practices for predictive modelling

Tracking : Scores must be tracked when applied and when modified before application. In these latter cases, it is important to understand why and possibly modify the model iteratively to improve it.

Efficiency : The most important thing is to make sure in the long run that the model is good for achieving the business objectives that were originally defined. If this is not the case, it must either recalibrate (keep the mechanisms, but readjust the valuations), or rebuild it!

Small bonus on best practices for predictive modelling

Moreover, on this subject and always by Lexis Nexis, I invite you to consult this video, which includes some of the fundamentals:

best practices for predictive modelling

SwissRe – Global Insurance Review 2017

global insurance review 2017

Version Française ici.


SwissRe has just published its global insurance review 2017 and its 2018 forecasts. The document is available at this link (Global insurance review) .

Innovation is essential, but to identify new answers, I remain convinced that we need to understand the state of the current market. This type of report is therefore essential to refine the grid of reading of what is happening in the world around us! This is particularly right as they give valuable insights into innovative solutions!

The four main themes covered in this document are:

  • Continued cyclical economic recovery at the macroeconomic level, although risks of instability persist;
  • Obviously, a big subject on the natural disasters of the year! These are causing great difficulties for all the systemic insurers in the area and therefore even more so for reinsurers;
  • Life insurance re-insurers adapt to the new deal;
  • Stable emerging markets in non-life and strong growth in life.

Key Points from the 2017 Global Insurance Review

More globally, here are the 10 points that SwissRe puts forward:

  • The rise of protectionism in large markets: in the United States, but also Brexit or the situation in Catalonia. This phenomenon is however not uniform (for example Latin America is liberalizing)
  • Monetary policy : what about the gradual end of quantitative easing?
  • Cyber ​​risk : The market is growing rapidly, and the stakes are high, particularly in terms of the quantity and quality of data needed for risk monitoring and pricing. A particular focus is to read p15 of the doc on this subject. Indeed, an estimated growth of 30% per annum of this market over the next 5 years should not be underestimated.
  • Increasing auto claims : More and more miles traveled, more traffic and distracted driving are the first drivers. The key is always technical results.
  • Brexit and the UK insurance market: Depending on the UK exit format, premiums should be reduced by 8 to 20%. This is a considerable shock on the market.
  • Innovate to increase the scope of insurability, especially in the “commercial” segments: I come back to this point just after
  • Losses related to Natural disasters (hurricanes).
  • Protecting Floods : Tools now exist to assess flood risk, and collaboration with states is needed to ensure the best coverage of this risk.
  • IFRS17 : Investments will be needed around the data to ensure good data collection and analysis.
  • Insurtechs in China : I’ll come back to this point below.

Increase insurability

On the perimeter of the “commercial” contracts (on which I am working rather seriously lately), innovation brings new solutions.

Swiss Re cites, of course, parametric insurance solutions, coupled with a global vision of risk, that solve complexities of the process at the time of the claims. On the other hand, it does not bring any real additional value talking about premium reduction for example.

The most important point about these contracts is that it is now possible to insure elements previously impossible to cover. This offers interesting growth opportunities. For example: image loss, product recalls, weather protection, or financial risks of increasing energy prices. This is now possible thanks to better access to risk data and a better assessment of its consequences.

Insurance can therefore strengthen its position as a protector of corporate investments and offset the risks of earnings volatility.

global insurance review 2017 global insurance review 2017

Insurtechs in China

A small recap is proposed on the issue of insurtech in China, where the growth of Zhong An is particularly impressive (insurtech largest insurer of the world).

2 successive waves took place in China:

  • A first from 2001, around the online distribution, which brought the online market share to almost 8%;
  • The second in recent years, which exploits new technologies and especially big data (telematics or insurance to use / UBI)

Prospects can still open up to cover the ecosystem of e-commerce, and even consider the entry of new players outside the insurance world.

The Chinese regulator seeks to constrain certain segments (such as online lending), but it is generally rather a support for innovation.

global insurance review 2017 global insurance review 2017

My opinion on the global insurance review 2017

Always of very good quality, the Swiss Re reports are full of information and figures. One could blame them for their lack of pedagogy and the austere aspect of their reports, which prevent a diffusion to the greatest number. It may be the price of quality!